Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
11/02/05
by Diane Sprague
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain
I have always liked this quote. I used to tutor students in statistics and thought that standard deviations, z-scores, and confidence intervals were lots of fun. Some of my students had a different opinion about that, but one thing I hoped that they would learn from all this lovely tinkering with numbers is what liars these little buggers could be. We can make numbers say whatever we want them to say, and even though statistics was suppose to be the science to help us be objective, our scheming minds have discovered how powerful they can be in creating all kinds of illusions.
A good example of how a statistic can be thrown around trying to say something significant but is actually meaningless is the ten percent myth. We have all heard this: We only use ten percent of our brains. This strange figure is thrown at us in order to make us all go into a panic wondering why we are such pathetic under users of our brains. But what is this suppose to mean? Ten percent of our neurons? Ten percent of the chemicals?. Ten percent of the brain space? Ten percent of the little homunculi up there are functioning while the rest of them are off fishing? Where did this number come from and why should we care? If somebody says we only use two percent of our toes, we would not be overly concerned. We might even wonder how such a statistic is determined and what possible significience this number would have since, at best as we can tell, our toes usually do a pretty reasonable job allowing us to stand, walk, and fill out the space in front of our shoes. But when this is said about our brains, we worry about what we are supposed to be doing with that other ninety percent and why we did not know about it before. Maybe that is what was missing from our lives. It makes us feel inadequate and this is unnecessary because we do not even know what that ninety percent refers to and if full usage is truly all we imagine it to be. I would guess using one hundred percent would be like having a big brass band inside us all the time blaring out all kinds of unnecessary thoughts and noises. Not good. I'll stick to my ten percent, and if after a long day, it wants to go down to five percent, I am all for it. Whose rule was it anyways that the percentage must be large? My bets are on the guy who is only using one percent. And I don't know about you, but I am staying far away from the person using one hundred percent. He or she would scare me.
As a Clay Aiken fan, I have spent some time looking for his numbers. Numbers of albums sold, numbers of people attending concerts, numbers of votes in a poll, numbers of dollars people were willing to spend on his auctioned clothes, or number of times Clay says what-not. They are interesting numbers, but I never know what they are truly saying and why I would care.
At first, I thought the interest stemmed from watching Clay be in a contest and having the competition mentally stick even after it was finished. He did not win and I wanted the numbers to show that he truly did. For awhile that made sense, but over time, it seemed silly to think that way and I realized I was looking for something else.
Maybe I just want my opinion validated. There is some satisfaction in having a crowd following one's own tastes and preferences. I am not sure what the numbers are saying They puzzle me. What does three million albums means other than, well, lots and lots? I remember looking for the television ratings for Clay's Christmas special and being befuddled by various reports, some indicating that these numbers were wonderful, some indicating they were so so, and some indicating they were dismal. It just depended how it the numbers were twisted. I was left not knowing anything about the popularity of the special and what that might mean about other specials that might be offered in the future. Although it's fun to watch the bid for Clay's items grow during the auctions, I don't quite understand why people spend so much money on autographed items and clothes that Clay wears. It's just stuff. Well, okay, I guess I could imagine running my hands along his shirt hoping some Clay germs are left over on it. They could hop over onto me and intermingle with my germs and create some bizarre and strangely satisfying fantasy, but his essay is suppose to be about statistics. Of course, I would probably spend an embarassing amount of money if that was the only way to get a hold of a new song that Clay sang. A lot of us would and those numbers would be out there saying something. I wonder if the world would hear it.
Maybe it is because we live in a world that does not know what to do with true talent. It's too busy giving us fake talent. I never understood why dvds were never made of Clay's concerts. I don't understand why these concerts are put on the television so the rest of the world could see what we are seeing, how amazing, unique, and beautiful Clay is during his live performances. So many of us spend an enormous amount of time capturing these videos, putting them on the Internet, and downloading them. We know what wonderful treasures we are gathering. There are no numbers for this. It's hidden. The world is looking at radio play, Billboard charts, and tickets sales, and I suppose they count for something, but the rest feels like a little secret. The numbers never talk about how highly we value what is otherwise unknown to the rest of the world.
I am used to walking through bookstores past the bestsellers, the books on the amazing healing powers of papaya, the books written by people who think they have something to say because we see them on television where they bore us to death so they might as well bore us some more in print, and books followed tired old formulas to create some sense of horror or romance, to find the small section in the back with the literature. Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Ayn Rand, Mark Twain and so many others are still to be found. It's just more difficult. They are the hidden treasures in the back. I guess it is the same for music.
There is so much the numbers will never say. Maybe it does not even have to be said. What is hidden and secret is usually the most valuable. It is still fun, though to pay attention to the statistics.
It seems the real meaning of the numbers makes the most sense to me when I let go of the notion that they have any meaning at all. Maybe it is the same reason my son knows all of the batting averages of the Yankee players. There is no reason to know this. It is just fun. The numbers change, they go up and down, and whether the player will get a hit at a strategic time, nobody will ever know until it happens or does not happen. The bum hitting at 200 might be the hero while the 300 player earning millions a year might be the overpriced goat. Who knows? Numbers give us a sense of control that we hold onto until it is time to let them go and just let life happen. Perhaps it just that sense of having the control is the illusion that numbers give us and knowing when it is time to let go of the illusion that makes it fun.
With Clay's Christmas tour starting and no concerts coming to my neighborhood, that lousy ten percent of my brain is scheming on how to gather the videos and put them into a coherent whole so I don't miss out. I will be fun to see how the concerts are selling, but I know what will be real is what will be hidden on my hard drive and my backup external hard drive.
SirLinksalot: Clay Aiken Links
SirLinksalot: American Idol Links
Link to a debunking site for the ten percent myth